Latest update of China's seamless pipe market in 2025

The China's seamless steel pipe market in 2025 is experiencing a painful period of restructuring: the escalation of international geopolitical conflicts has accelerated the prudence of capital expenditures, the misalignment of domestic infrastructure and manufacturing demand cycles has aggravated the market fragmentation, and the short-term pressure on each link of the industrial chain is intertwined with the long-term transformation pressure. At present, the national average price of seamless pipes fluctuates repeatedly between 4350-4450 yuan/ton, which is difficult to fall below the cash cost line of small and medium-sized steel mills, and is unable to break through the demand suppression line, reflecting the delicate balance between "policy stimulus expectations" and "real inventory pressure" in the market. The first quarter has passed, how will the seamless pipe market develop? The author will briefly analyze:

1. Prices are differentiated in weak fluctuations

Seamless pipe Φ108×4.5 national average price seasonal analysis (unit: yuan/ton)

In the past three years, the national average price of seamless pipe size Φ108×4.5 has shown the characteristics of "intensified volatility and prominent structural contradictions". In 2023, the price will fluctuate narrowly in the range of 4900-5350 yuan/ton, supported by the rush of infrastructure construction after the epidemic, but the sluggish real estate in the second half of the year dragged down demand, and fell back to a low level at the end of the year. In 2024, cost drive will be strengthened (coke and pipe billet prices will increase), and the price range will expand to 4350-4900 yuan/ton. After reaching a high in June, it will quickly fall back, showing the characteristics of "not busy in the peak season" throughout the year. In 2025, unlike the previous two years, the price did not rise at the beginning of the year. It was more due to the market's concerns about the international situation and trade frictions. In addition, the "golden March and silver April" failed, and it fell to 4324 yuan/ton in April (a new low in the past three years), reflecting the transmission of liquidity crisis on the trade side. The current market contradiction has shifted from "weak supply and demand" to the game of policy and capital expenditure. The bottom of the price is supported by the cash cost line of small and medium-sized steel mills, and the top is subject to the terminal acceptance. Compared with previous years, the current price has approached the cash cost line of small and medium-sized mills, and the downward space is limited, but the rebound needs to wait for the substantial implementation of infrastructure funds (especially the increase in treasury bond projects).

2. Cost drive is enhanced and profit is narrowed

Shandong seamless pipe factory profit (unit: yuan/ton)

Shandong pipe billet price (unit: yuan/ton)

From 2023 to 2025, Shandong seamless pipe industry chain showed significant "cost drive enhancement and profit space narrowing" characteristics. Figure 2 shows that Shandong pipe billet fluctuated at a low level in 2025, with an average price of 3,450 yuan/ton in April, 18% higher than 2024, 24 yuan/ton lower than March, and 380 yuan/ton lower than the same period last year. The high pressure of raw material costs is transmitted to the production end. Figure 1 reveals that the profits of seamless pipe factories have been greatly compressed: the spot profit of steel mills in April 2025 was negative, down 63% from the same period in 2023, and some small factories have fallen into the loss range (profit <100 yuan/ton). "Poor cost transmission" has become the core contradiction: the terminal's acceptance of high-priced resources is low, resulting in a spot decline (the average price of seamless pipes fell by 1.6% in April) significantly higher than the decline in pipe billets. The current market is caught in a two-way tug-of-war between "cost support" and "demand suppression". Small and medium-sized manufacturers are forced to reduce production, and large factories rely on long-term contract orders to maintain cash flow. The market outlook needs to be vigilant about the risk of widening the cost-demand scissors gap.

3. Steel mill production cuts and downstream wait-and-see game

The current Chinese seamless pipe market presents the characteristics of "supply contraction but destocking is blocked": Steel Union data shows that the weekly output of seamless pipes in China fell by 12,400 tons month-on-month in April, mainly due to active maintenance in North China and tight pipe billet resources. Despite the production contraction, social inventory is still as high as 708,200 tons, and the destocking rate is lower than expected. In terms of regions, the pressure on incremental inventory in the northwest due to infrastructure projects has eased slightly. The tightening of the supply side has failed to effectively boost prices, mainly because the terminal purchasing willingness is sluggish, and traders are forced to reduce prices and sell goods under cash flow pressure.

Market under multi-dimensional game:

The current seamless pipe market is caught in a "triple dilemma": cost transmission is broken, inventory clearance is sluggish, and policy transmission efficiency is insufficient. From the perspective of the game cycle, May may become a key turning point - if the proportion of special bond funds in place exceeds 50% at the end of the month, coupled with the implementation of the policy of eliminating production capacity, the national average price of seamless pipes is expected to rise to 4,450 yuan/ton; on the contrary, if the demand recovery is weaker than expected and the prices of raw materials such as coke fall, the social warehouse clearance is still below the daily average threshold of 15,000 tons, and the market price may still have a low point.

Read more: Seamless steel pipe manufacturer and supplier list in China or Analysis of seamless steel pipe costs