China Seamless Steel Pipe Market Price Trend Review and Outlook (2025-2026)

2025 Market Review: Fluctuating Downward Trend, Prices Hit Nearly Five-Year Low

In 2025, the Chinese seamless steel pipe market experienced a fluctuating downward trend due to a confluence of factors. The combined pressures of overseas interest rate hikes, slow domestic real estate recovery, and shrinking demand resulted in an unsatisfactory overall performance for the industry.

Regarding prices, according to Mysteel survey data, the average price of seamless steel pipe (20#, 108*4.5mm) nationwide in 2025 was RMB 4324/ton, a decrease of RMB 361/ton compared to 2024, representing a drop of 7.70%. According to statistics from Business Society, the average price of seamless steel pipe in 2025 was approximately RMB 4115/ton, a decrease of 9.04% compared to RMB 4487.32/ton in 2024. The two data sources differ slightly due to sample variations, but both point to the same trend—a significant downward shift in the price center of gravity.

Looking at the year-on-year trend, prices accelerated their decline starting in late March. Although there was a brief rebound in early April, the overall trend remained unchanged, and prices continued to fall, reaching a new low in nearly three years by mid-November. By the end of December, the national average price of seamless steel pipes was 4215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 227 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year, a drop of 5.11%, reaching the lowest level in nearly five years. Currently, seamless steel pipe prices are at a level slightly below the historical median.

On the supply side, in 2025, China added approximately 1.97 million tons of seamless steel pipe production capacity, with about 10 new production lines, bringing the total capacity to 42.91 million tons. The total output of seamless steel pipes for the year was approximately 30.9 million tons, accounting for more than 50% of global output. The industry's capacity utilization rate has long hovered between 65% and 70%.

Exports were a major highlight in 2025. Seamless steel pipe exports reached 6.2828 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.79%, breaking the 6 million ton mark for the first time and setting a new historical record. Exports to the Middle East reached 2.4074 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.27%, making it China's largest export market for seamless steel pipes. In terms of average export price, the average export price of seamless steel pipes in 2025 was US$1,182/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 6.03%.

Regarding profits, industry profits generally declined in 2025. Blast furnace enterprises averaged approximately RMB 88/ton, a year-on-year decrease of RMB 126/ton; Shandong billet rolling mills averaged a loss of RMB 42/ton, remaining in a loss-making state.

Review of the First Half of 2026: Initial Rise Followed by Decline, Off-Season Effect Emerges

Entering 2026, the seamless steel pipe market, in the first year of the "15th Five-Year Plan," exhibited a characteristic of initial rise followed by decline.

According to Mysteel data, the average price of seamless steel pipes nationwide in the first half of 2026 was 4,263 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton compared to the average price for the whole of 2025, a drop of 1.43%. Prices showed a slight upward trend overall in the first half of the year, reaching an average of 4,313 yuan/ton by the end of June, an increase of 99 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year. However, since late May, demand has declined significantly, and prices have entered a downward trend.

Supply-side pressure continues to increase. In 2026, it is estimated that four production lines with a capacity of 1.6 million tons will be under construction, and one production line with a capacity of 450,000 tons will be planned, bringing the total seamless steel pipe capacity for the year to an estimated 2.05 million tons. The industry's capacity utilization rate remains at a low level of 65%-70%. According to Mysteel statistics, the total output of 30 mainstream seamless steel pipe manufacturers in the first half of 2026 was 9.8536 million tons, an increase of 3.92% year-on-year.

Profits continue to be squeezed. In the first half of 2026, the average profit of blast furnace enterprises was approximately RMB 78/ton, a decrease of RMB 110/ton year-on-year; the average profit of billet rolling enterprises was approximately RMB 52/ton, a decrease of RMB 71/ton year-on-year (-22). The overall profitability of the industry further narrowed.

As of mid-August, the national average price of seamless steel pipe (108*4.5mm) was around RMB 4253-4256/ton, remaining stable. August is still in the traditional off-season for demand, with downstream procurement mainly focused on immediate needs, and market sentiment was cautious.

Outlook for the second half of 2026: Low at the beginning and high at the end, with a potential phased recovery at the end of the year.

Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, most institutions predict that seamless steel pipe prices will show a trend of "low at the beginning and high at the end."

Favorable factors: At the macro level, the start of the "15th Five-Year Plan" may bring more favorable incremental policies, and the real estate market is expected to gradually stabilize. Steel structures, pipeline renovation, water conservancy, power, oil and gas pipelines, and heating sectors will continue to provide considerable incremental demand. With the fundamentals continuing to improve in the second half of the year and macro policies being implemented successively, the delayed release of demand for seamless steel pipes is expected to drive a phased price increase in the market. From a cyclical perspective, current seamless steel pipe prices are at a historically low to mid-range. If macro policies are implemented better than expected, the release of demand in the second half of the year is expected to drive a phased market recovery.

Constraints: Supply-side competition remains significant – capacity is projected to increase by 2.05 million tons in 2026 and an additional 1.5 million tons in 2027. Given the disorderly expansion of industry capacity, the fundamental oversupply situation is unlikely to fundamentally change in the short term. Furthermore, external risks such as sudden changes in the international situation and significant fluctuations in raw material costs still need to be monitored. With the off-season nearing its end in August, pipe mills are showing increased willingness to control production, costs have stabilized, and market confidence is gradually recovering.

Summary and Procurement Recommendations:

Overall, the Chinese seamless steel pipe market will be in a period of deep adjustment and transformation in 2025-2026: prices are trending downwards, capacity is continuously expanding, profit margins are narrowing, and exports remain resilient. Current prices are at a historically low to mid-range, offering a certain valuation advantage.

From a procurement perspective, current seamless steel pipe prices are at a historically low to mid-range, offering some valuation advantages. Market lows typically occur during traditional off-seasons (such as August and September), while prices may face upward pressure during periods of concentrated demand release (such as October and November). Considering that the industry's capacity is still in an expansion cycle, the potential for significant price increases in the medium to long term is limited. It is recommended that purchasers, in conjunction with their own project schedules, pay attention to the transmission effect of raw material price fluctuations (such as billet prices) on the cost of finished pipes and rationally plan their procurement accordingly.

Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available market data and industry research reports and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment or procurement advice. Market prices are affected by multiple factors; actual transaction prices are subject to real-time quotations.