What factors influence the price of seamless pipes?

Seamless pipe (SMLS pipe) price fluctuations are influenced by multiple factors, from raw materials to end-user demand. The following are the key factors influencing seamless pipe prices and their quantitative analysis:

Raw material cost is a key variable:

1. Steel price fluctuations: The primary raw materials for seamless pipes are carbon steel, alloy steel, and other materials, and their prices directly determine the cost of the finished pipe. For example, the average price of domestic 20# hot-rolled steel billets in 2023 was 3,800-4,200 yuan/ton (Source: Mysteel.com), accounting for over 60% of the total cost of seamless pipes. A 10% increase in steel prices typically translates to a 6%-8% increase in seamless pipe prices.

2. Additional costs due to alloying elements: Alloy steel pipes containing elements such as chromium and molybdenum (such as P91) are 30%-50% more expensive than ordinary carbon steel pipes due to material scarcity.

Production Process and Technical Requirements:

1. Differences between cold rolling and hot rolling: Cold-rolled (drawn) seamless pipes offer higher precision (tolerance ±0.1mm) and a smoother surface, but processing fees are 2,000-3,000 yuan/ton more expensive than hot-rolled pipes. Hot-rolled pipes are more suitable for large diameters (e.g., Φ426mm and above) requiring lower costs.

2. Special treatment processes: Processes such as quenching and pickling can increase costs by 15%-20%. Data from one manufacturer shows that oil pipes certified to the API 5L standard command a 25% premium over standard pipes.

Market Supply and Demand and Industry Applications:

1. Downstream Demand Changes: The global energy industry will recover in 2023, with demand for oil cracking pipes increasing by 12% (IEA data), driving prices of some seamless pipe specifications up by 8%-10%.
2. Inventory Cycle Impact: Traders' concentrated purchases during the winter storage period (November to February of the following year) may lead to short-term price increases of 5%-7%.

Policy and International Trade Factors:

1. Tariffs and Anti-dumping Duties: For example, the EU's anti-dumping duties of 17.2%-39.2% on Chinese seamless pipes (determined in 2023) have resulted in a passive increase in export prices by over 20%.
2. Environmental Protection Production Restrictions: During the production restrictions in Tangshan during the autumn and winter of 2023, seamless pipe supply decreased by 15%, and local market prices increased by 500 yuan/ton per month.

Other Key Variables:

- Transportation Costs: Fluctuations in ocean freight costs (e.g., the average price from Shanghai to Europe rose to $1,200 per container in 2023) could impact the final quotes for 5%-8% of export orders.
- Exchange Rate Fluctuations: A 1% depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar would typically result in a 0.6%-0.8% reduction in domestic seamless pipe export prices to maintain competitiveness.

Conclusion:

Seamless pipe prices are the result of the dynamic interaction of multiple factors, and buyers should make a comprehensive assessment based on real-time data and industry trends. For example, if iron ore prices exceed $150/ton in 2024 (currently $130), seamless pipe costs are expected to increase by another 10%-12%.

Read more: China Seamless Steel Pipe Manufacturer and Supplier List or Seamless pipe vs Welded pipe Price